Kinas Tilapia -industri står inför allvarliga utmaningar: stillastående export gör det svårt att upprätthålla stabila priser, och tulldödlåset fortsätter att dra ner branschens förtroende

Tilapia-priser i södra Kina verkar vara stabila, men branschen varnar för att marknaden står inför fortsatta nedsidor risker . Även om det ex-faktoriska priset för 500-800 g tilapia i de huvudsakliga produktionsområdena, och hainan förblir oförändrad, är verkligheten bakom stabiliteten en skarp droppe, stagnera, stagna, stagna) förblir 3))

This week, the purchase prices of processing plants in Guangdong and Hainan remained at the same level as last week, with no significant fluctuations. However, voices from the front line show that the pace of purchases behind the scenes has slowed down significantly. A person in charge of a large export processing enterprise in Guangdong said bluntly: "Stability is an Illusion . Köpvolymen minskar, och exportriktningen har inte förbättrats . Efter att USA: s ordning slutade verkade hela kedjan vara trasig . "

After the United States announced a preliminary trade agreement with China in early June, it did not release further details and fell silent. Previously, the market had expected that the tariff adjustment node might come on July 9, but the reality did not develop as expected. The current cumulative tariff on Chinese tilapia remains at 55%. Although this rate is lower than the previous 179%, it still poses betydande tryck på köpare .

According to exporters, orders from the US East Coast were completed in June, while orders from the West Coast were all completed by July 5. This brought the export rhythm to a sudden halt in July, which should have been the peak season. "Since July, we have basically had no new orders from the US," a Hainan company executive said. "In addition to the high temperature fish season, the Leveransen är stor, men marknaden har ingen förmåga att absorbera den .

The reaction of the processing plants is obvious: reduce the purchase volume, carefully arrange production, and press down the price to the purchasing side. Some companies have begun to turn to alternative markets such as Europe, the Middle East and even Africa, but these markets have limited capacity and the prices are not as ideal as those in the United States. A Guangdong exporter said: "Although the tariffs in the United States are high, the Volymen är stor . Om det inte finns någon förändring på lång sikt, måste vi helt anpassa vår riktning . "

At the same time, the oversupply in the raw material market is also brewing greater pressure. It is the peak season for breeding in the south, and the adult fish that were released earlier are gradually being put on the market. However, the downstream processing end has limited absorption capacity. Although the market price has been temporarily maintained, it has shown signs of Trötthet . En branschinsider påpekade att "det nuvarande stabila priset bara är en tillfällig saldo . När inventeringen ackumuleras eller den utländska marknaden fortsätter att krympa, kommer priset oundvikligen att falla ."

However, from the overall perspective of the industrial chain, exports are still an irreplaceable and important pillar of the tilapia industry. At present, companies are generally in a wait-and-see state. On the one hand, they continue to maintain basic communication with American customers, and on the other hand, they accelerate the development of new markets. But most companies admit that "alternative markets cannot fill the gap in the US market in the short term." So far, China and the United States have not announced plans for the next round of trade negotiations. Market participants generally believe that if there is no substantial adjustment in tariff policies before August 12, the tilapia industry will face a new round of challenges. All links in the industrial chain from breeding, processing to export are waiting for signaler, men förtroende har börjat vakla .